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The space junk ERBS is forecast to reentry Tuesday, 17 Jan 2023 at 11:38 UTC +/- 8 hours
ERBS

Forecast for ERBS Reentry


Update Tue 29-Nov-2022 15:15 UTC

The map above shows the location of the possible reentry of the space junk ERBS (15354U) predicted by modeling of orbital evolution until the fragment or satellite reaches the altitude of nominal burst.

According to the forecast made by Satview.org, the object's reentry will occur in Tuesday, 17 Jan 2023 at 11:38 UTC, above the coordinates shown on map.

Satellite Launch Norad Incl.
degrees
Apogee
Km
Perigee
Km
Period
min
Options
ELECTRON R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-20
202253353U70º15813987Reentered!
Lat=-69.9   Lon=316.3
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-10-28
202254156U52º17916388Reentered!
Lat=-19.3   Lon=293.8
H-2A R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-11-2
201540539U97º14312987Reentered!
Forecast
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-11-3
202254111U97º14212387Reentered!
Lat=74.8   Lon=116.1
CZ-5B R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-11-4
202254217U41º21515088Reentered!
Lat=-2.2   Lon=245.9
KZ-1A R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-11-5
202253759U54º19713388Reentered!
Lat=35.9   Lon=7.3
ANTARES R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-11-9
202254233U52º17513488Reentered!
Lat=43.9   Lon=183.1
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-11-11
202254213U53º17715588Reentered!
Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-11-11
202254016U53º15014787Reentered!
Forecast
RED-EYE 3 (CABERNET)
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-11-14
199845809U52º17917588Reentered!
Forecast
FALCON 9 DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-11-14
202253812U53º19518988Reentered!
Forecast
RED-EYE 2 (MERLOT)
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-11-14
199845800U52º19919488Reentered!
Forecast
CZ-7 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-11-15
202254240U41º20618688Reentered!
Lat=-3   Lon=118
1998-067TD
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-11-15
199851441U52º22221489Reentered!
Forecast
IHI-SAT
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-11-17
199852147U52º25624490Reentered!
Forecast
PATCOOL
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-11-17
199851442U52º24523589Reentered!
Forecast
SL-4 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-11-19
202253324U97º24921089Reentered!
Forecast
INNOSAT-2
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-11-30
201843738U97º32631291Forecast
ISS DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-12-2
199848833U52º28827990Forecast
COSMOS 2560
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-12-7
202254050U96º30529691Forecast
ISS DEB
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-12-12
199852952U52º34633291Forecast
TIANWANG 1A (TW-1A)
Reentry: (YMD) 2022-12-24
201540928U97º32832091Forecast
ERBS
Reentry: (YMD) 2023-01-9
198415354U57º31631291Forecast
LIGHT-1
Reentry: (YMD) 2023-01-16
199851509U52º34433091Forecast
AEOLUS
Reentry: (YMD) 2023-01-19
201843600U97º31730791Forecast
CZ-2C R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2023-01-20
201440306U97º33432291Forecast
SHERPA-LTC2
Reentry: (YMD) 2023-01-26
202253754U53º32630991Forecast
CZ-6 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2023-02-1
201540913U97º34630791Forecast
SL-3 R/B
Reentry: (YMD) 2023-02-25
198011822U81º34433591Forecast
SZ-13 MODULE
Reentry: (YMD) 2023-03-18
202152260U41º34132691Forecast




The Satellite Path


The path to be followed by satellite (dotted line) does not change due to the fact that the satellite is falling and can be used to assess the trajectory of the object before and after possible fall. In the graph, each point marks the range of 1 minute.

Solar Flux and Other Variables


As much as the institutes and space agencies strive to provide correct data of the point where the space debris will fall, several factors may interfere with the accuracy of the prediction. Among the most important, the solar flux is the most critical because it determines the conditions of the upper atmosphere, increasing or decreasing the drag on the object.

Besides the solar flux acting on the aerodynamic characteristics, another variable rather difficult to be computed is the resistance of materials used in the construction of the object and the shape of the structure. Combined, these factors may determine different altitudes for the moment of rupture, causing errors of more than 30 km in altitude reentry provided.

Other variables that affect the calculation of reentry, although less important, are the gravitational perturbations of the Sun and Moon and also those exercised by large mountain ranges, above or below sea level.

The modeling used by Satview to compute the time of reentry uses solar flux data obtained at the time of modeling, and prediction of the behavior of the sun for the next 5 days. With this, the margin of error of prediction is + / - 3 revolutions for satellites or debris in uncontrolled reentry.

Altitude of Reentry


Spacecraft reentering the atmosphere without control usually break between 72 and 84 km altitude due to temperature and aerodynamic forces acting on the structure.

The nominal breakup altitude is 78 km, but big satellites that have larger and denser structures survive longer and break down at lower altitudes. Usually, solar panels are destroyed before any component, at altitudes between 90 and 95 km.

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